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2 Data sources
This html version contains only the text (no figures, tables equations, or summary and conclusions). To check printed book appearance see pdf version of Chapter 1 or pdf version of Chapter 16.
Introduction
Quantification is at the core
of scientific understanding, and quantification requires
data. Few subjects provide more data than traffic crashes.
Nearly all the world's countries record and classify
crashes. Since the beginning of motorization, this has
resulted in the collection of information on about a billion
traffic crashes. Despite so much data, many questions remain
unanswered because factors of interest have not been
recorded or the data are not sufficiently reliable,
complete, or conveniently accessible.
A characteristic common to all data
sets is that they include only crashes that meet specified
criteria. The data set therefore is only a subset of the
total reality. It follows that even reliable inferences from
data sets do not necessarily provide useful information
about real-world phenomena. For example, it is
straightforward to estimate the most common crash severity
in any data set which records crash severity. However, it is
incorrect to conclude that this is also the most common
crash severity. The most common crash severity for real
crashes is just marginally above zero, but such low severity
crashes do not get recorded in data sets.
In general, the more serious the
outcome of a traffic crash, the more likely the crash is
well documented in data sets. Below we discuss different
sources of data, starting with data on the most severe
crashes.
Fatalities
Most of the literature on
traffic safety, including this book, has a strong emphasis
on fatalities. Not only are fatalities the most serious and
permanent consequence of traffic crashes, but fatality data
are vastly more reliable and readily interpretable than data
for any other level of harm. However, fatality data are
still subject to uncertainties. As was noted in discussing
the Titanic, even a simple count may contain mistakes of
both omission and incorrect inclusion.
What is a traffic fatality?
The definition of a traffic
fatality is far from simple. The problems are readily
illustrated by the definition used in the Fatality Analysis
Reporting System (FARS). This data set defines a traffic
fatality as a person who dies within 30 days of a crash on a
US public road involving a vehicle with an engine, the death
being the result of the crash. If a driver has a non-fatal
heart attack that leads to a crash that causes death, this
is a traffic fatality. However, if the heart attack causes
death prior to the crash, then this is not a traffic
fatality. If a victim dies many days after a crash, a
difficult judgment may be required to decide whether it is a
traffic fatality. For example, a frail person may die from
pneumonia during hospitalization to treat crash trauma. As
we all have some chance of dying at any moment, some people
die within 30 days of even the most minor crash.
The 30-day inclusion criterion is
by no means universal. The National Safety Council uses one
year. Their estimate of total US traffic fatalities
typically exceeds the FARS total by about 4%, suggesting
that a similar percent of crash victims die between one and
12 months after their crashes. As a victim may die from
crash injuries decades after a crash, no feasible selection
criterion can guarantee complete inclusion. The choice must
be a compromise between completeness and timeliness. With a
30-day criterion, the complete data for (say) 2000 includes
events through 30 January 2001. The administrative tasks
required to produce the data set prevent it from being
available until much later. Thus results derived by
analyzing data cannot provide direct information about what
is currently happening, only what happened in the past.
Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)
The FARS1 data set that provides many of the
results in this book is maintained by the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), part of the US
Department of Transportation. It is a census of all US fatal
crashes occurring since 1 January 1975. The FARS system now
provides information on more than a million Americans killed
in traffic, another reminder of the enormous harm from
traffic crashes. The information is based mainly on police
completing forms providing details in three categories:
1. Crash (date, time, roadway category, etc.)
2. Vehicles (number involved, types, model year, etc.)
3. People (age, gender, alcohol use of involved persons
including pedestrians and
all occupants of all vehicles, belt use by vehicle
occupants, etc.)
Each crash has more than 100 data
elements coded by FARS analysts who may make some judgments
based on the information available. For most fatally injured
drivers, Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) is measured in an
autopsy. In seeking mainly objective data elements, FARS
lacks information on many factors of interest. The speed
limit on the road on which the crash occurred is noted, but
the police officer has no way to know what speed vehicles
were traveling prior to the crash, or the impact speed.
Likewise, fault is not indicated. Some variables are of
uncertain reliability, including belt use of surviving
occupants, which is based largely on what they tell police.
A strange and needless deficiency
in FARS is that cases in which deliberate intent, such as
suicide, can be definitively identified are excluded. Thus
FARS abandons, for no good reason, the goal of being a
census of those killed in traffic. By excluding some small
but unknown percent of traffic suicides it makes the file
less useful for investigating traffic suicides. All traffic
deaths should have been coded, and if deliberate intent was
suspected or confirmed, this should have been noted in an
additional data element. Hopefully FARS can correct this
deficiency. Indirect methods applied to Finnish data
indicate that as many as 5.9% of traffic deaths may be
suicides (p. 225).
Some characteristics of fatal crashes
Table 2-1 shows basic
information from FARS for 2002. Logically, the number of
fatal crashes cannot be larger than the number of fatalities
or the number of involved vehicles. A crash in which anyone
is killed is a rare event among crashes, just as a crash is
a rare event among trips. A crash in which more than one
person is killed is a rare event among fatal crashes. 9% of
the fatal crashes killed more than one person. 13% of the
two-vehicle fatal crashes killed more than one person.
22,086 of the fatal crashes, or 57.7%, were single-vehicle
crashes. 23,639 of those killed, or 55.4%, were killed in
single-vehicle crashes.
Table 2-1. US fatal crashes in 2002.1
Note that the majority of people
involved in fatal crashes are not themselves killed. For
example, consider a car with four occupants crashing into
two pedestrians, killing one and injuring the other.
Assuming no car occupants are killed, this crash will have
six involved people, one being killed. On the other hand,
13,339 of the fatal crashes (35.0%) involved only one person
- the unaccompanied driver of a vehicle striking a fixed
object, overturning, etc. without impacting any other person
or vehicle. These crashes account for 13,339/42,815 = 31.3%
of all fatalities.
Although not part of the FARS data
set, it is estimated by other methods that about 65 fetuses
are killed annually in traffic crashes.
Non-fatal injuries
While fatal injuries conceptually involve only a yes or
no determination, non-fatal injuries lie along a severity
continuum, from minor scratches to near death, and apply to
different regions of the body. The question "How many
injuries?" has little meaning in the absence of some
defined level of injury. Generally, the less severe the
injury, the more frequently it occurs, so the total number
of injuries increases steeply as the threshold for inclusion
is lowered.
The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS)
Because categorizing injuries is so complex, no
single classification coding scheme has achieved universal
acceptance. The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), developed by
the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine,
is the most widely used and accepted scale. The AIS
classifies injuries by body part, specific lesion, and
severity on a 6-point scale in terms of the threat to life
of a single injury. The scale is ordinal, meaning that an
AIS 2 injury is greater than an AIS 1 injury, but is in no
sense twice as great. It is therefore formally incorrect to
apply arithmetical operations to sets of AIS values. The AIS
level is determined by comparing injuries diagnosed by a
physician to those listed in the detailed documentation that
defines the scale. Other scales are also used, such as the
International Classification of Diseases, which includes
injuries as a subset of all illnesses. There is ongoing
research to compare results from different scales in order
to expand and improve them.
The AIS level is determined soon after the crash, and not by
final outcome. As a consequence, it is possible for injuries
at any AIS level to prove fatal later, although the observed
risk of death increases steeply with increasing AIS level,
as illustrated in Table 2-2. The values given for
probability of death are not part of the AIS level
definitions, nor are they expected to be closely replicated
in general. They are the observed values in one study and
are presented to indicate more clearly how the potential for
injuries to be life-threatening increases with increasing
AIS. If an examination uncovers no injury at a level
matching any on the scale, this is recorded as AIS = 0. The
scale is based exclusively on medical criteria - it does not
reflect how the same injury can generate vastly different
degrees of impairment for different individuals. An AIS 3
injury to a finger may have little effect on the life of a
singer, but may end the career of a violinist.
Injury victims often sustain injuries to more than one body
region. For many analyses it is convenient to use only one
measure of injury severity, which is the maximum AIS, or
MAIS. A victim with three injured regions of the body, all
at AIS 1, would have a MAIS of 1; a victim with one region
injured at AIS 1 and one at AIS 2 would have a MAIS of 2.
KABCO classification
The AIS is known for very few cases, because it
requires a physician to examine the victim and then input
the findings into the appropriate data file. A simple
classification that has proved useful for many studies is
the "KABCO" scheme, where K = killed, A =
incapacitating injury, B = non-incapacitating injury, C =
possible injury, and O = no injury. These classifications
can be made at the crash scene by police officers, leading
to their inclusion in large data files. KABCO values are
coded for 99% of the 100,968 people included in FARS for
2001. A comparison of KABCO and AIS coding for the same
crashes found that 49% of those coded as A ( =
incapacitating injury) had no more than minor injuries (AIS
= 0 or 1).
Disability-adjusted and quality-adjusted life year
(DALY and QALY)
The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is a
measure that reflects the total amount of healthy life lost
to all causes, whether from premature mortality or from some
degree of disability during a period of time. One DALY is
defined as one lost year of healthy life due to premature
death or disability. While the World Health Organization
estimates that traffic fatalities will be the sixth leading
cause of death in the world in 2020, they are expected to be
the third leading cause of DALYs lost.
Another metric often used in benefit-cost studies is the
quality-adjusted life year (QALY). A year in perfect health
is considered equal to 1.0 QALY. The value of a year in ill
health would be discounted. For example, a year bedridden
might have a value equal to 0.5 QALY.
Number of US injuries at different injury severities
Deciding how to code injuries is only one step along
the way to answering such questions as how many injuries of
a specified severity occur. There are too many injuries for
all of them to be documented in detail, as is done for
fatalities. Instead, a number of data sets have adopted
sampling schemes. In most cases, the more severe the crash
and the injuries it produces, the more likely it is to be
selected for the expensive scrutiny necessary to determine
injury levels and vehicle damage. Data sets including useful
estimates of injuries include the Crashworthiness Data
System (CDS), the General Estimates System, and the National
Automotive Sampling System (NASS), and others.
The National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data
System (NASS CDS) is a stratified probability sample of all
US crashes involving a passenger vehicle that required
towing due to damage. The probability that a crash is
included depends strongly on crash characteristics. For
example, the more severe the crash the more likely it is to
be included (otherwise the system would be swamped with
minor crashes). This makes the raw data unsuitable for most
studies. Instead, the sampled crashes are scaled up to
national estimates based on the structure of the sampling
protocol. Such a process necessarily injects substantial
additional uncertainty.
The estimates in Table 2-3 showing the numbers of people
injured at different levels in the US in 2000 were obtained
by synthesizing information from different data sets.14
Fatalities are included as a separate category to avoid
double counting. Totals for all MAIS levels, especially the
higher levels, would be larger if those who subsequently
died were kept with the MAIS totals. Over 5 million injuries
are estimated, with the vast majority being minor (MAIS =
1).
Table 2-3. The number of people suffering different
levels of injury from traffic crashes in the US in 2000
The monetary cost of US traffic crashes
The estimates of total monetary cost in Table 2-4 include
cost of lost productivity, medical costs, legal and court
costs, emergency service costs, insurance administration
costs, travel delay, property damage, and workplace losses.
Converting all costs into the one metric of dollars has
important advantages, but can be done only by invoking many
assumptions. The authors of the report stress that economic
costs represent only one aspect of the consequences of motor
vehicle crashes, and do not reflect the pain, loss of
function, disfiguration, emotional stress, and other
suffering to the victims and immediate families.14 The
lifetime economic cost to society for each fatality is
estimated at just under a million dollars, over 80 percent
of which is attributable to lost workplace and household
productivity. The difficulties in estimating the cost of a
fatality is succinctly captured in an essay titled: And how
much for your grandmother? (p 245) The fact that most
victims are young crucially affects the estimated cost of a
fatality, which must necessarily be based on many
assumptions.
Table 2-4. Monetary cost of motor-vehicle crashes in the US in 2000 (in billions of 2000 US dollars).
The largest dollar cost is
property damage. This includes property damage from all
crashes, including those also involving injury. The largest
contribution is from the 13.5 million non-injury crashes.
The $231 billion cost of motor vehicle crashes represents
$820 for each person in the US, and is 2.3 percent of the US
gross domestic product.
Crash severity - damage to vehicles
FARS contains a variable extent
of deformation in four categories; none, minor, moderate and
severe, based on visual inspection of the vehicle by police.
Even though it is coded for 98% of the vehicles in FARS, it
tends to be of limited use because more than 90% of the
vehicles in which the driver is killed are, as one would
expect, coded as having severe deformation.
Ideally, one would like to know in
detail how the forces on occupants varied in time during
crashes to better understand how crash and vehicle
characteristics influence injuries. Such information is
available only for anthropometric dummies in instrumented
laboratory crash tests. An overall measure that
relates to forces during a crash is the change in vehicle
speed due to the crash (delta-v or Dv). A vehicle traveling
at, say 60 km/h, crashing head-on into an immovable barrier
would have Dv = 60 km/h. If it crashed into a stationary car
of similar mass, each vehicle would have Dv = 30 km/h. It is
found that injury outcomes in real crashes are related to
delta-v. Such relationships arise only because the time
during which the crash occurs is relatively similar for
different crashes. Arguably, a safely landing airliner has
Dv = 800 km/h. However,
this change from cruising speed to stationary takes place
over 20 minutes, imparting minimal forces on occupants. A
delta-v of 60 km/h occurring in 70 ms generates an average
deceleration of 238 m/s2, or 24 times that due gravity
(often written 24 G's) with associated potentially lethal
forces. Falling from the same height onto a cushion or onto
concrete produces the same delta-v. The cushion causes the
delta-v to occur over a longer time, thereby reducing injury
forces.
The data plotted in Fig. 2-1 are
for crashed vehicles with unbelted drivers, derived from
weighted NASS data. The number of crashed vehicles increases
very steeply with decreasing delta-v, reaching a peak at Dv
just under 20 km/h. There have been many comments to the
effect that the most common crash delta-v is some value, say
about 20 km/h. This is not so. The peak in the top graph in
Fig. 2-1 is a characteristic of the data set, not a
characteristic of crashes. There are compelling reasons to
believe that more crashes occur with Dv in the range 0-1
km/h than occur in the range 1-2 km/h, and so on, with the
number of crashes increasing systematically with decreasing
severity. At below about 20 km/h, the probability that a
crash is recorded in the data set declines reaching
essentially zero for Dv = 1 km/h, thus producing the
observed pattern in the recorded data. The straight line
fitted to the main body of the data in the top plot in Fig.
2-1 estimates about 9 times as many crashes in the range 0-1
km/h as in the range 19-20 km/h.
The middle plot shows how the risk
of death and severe injury increases with delta-v. At high
values of delta-v there are few cases, which leads to the
noisy pattern.
The bottom plot is the number of
crashes times the probability that the crash causes a severe
injury or death. The peak values here are real and have
important implications for occupant protection, because when
different occupant protection devices are adjusted to
protect best at a particular severity, their effectiveness
will be less at other severities. The goal is not to provide
the greatest protection for the greatest number of crashes
(low Dv), nor is it to provide the greatest protection where
risk is highest (high Dv), but to provide the greatest
protection at the value of Dv at which the most harm occurs.
This value depends on balancing large numbers of minor
injuries against small numbers of more severe injuries and
fatalities.
How reliable are injury reports?
The omission of large numbers of low-severity crashes
from the data used to produce the top plot of Fig. 2-1 is a
feature built into the data set - only crashes above a
specified level of severity were supposed to be included
(indeed, they were all tow-away crashes). The missing cases
were not supposed to be included. Because almost no injuries
are expected in even very large numbers of sub-threshold
crashes, their omission is of no material importance. Real
problems do arise when cases that should be included are
omitted, and when cases are included when they should not
be.
It is unlikely that examining the content of a data set can
reveal missing values, or plausible entries that should not
have been included. However, a number of different types of
investigations shed light on the reported numbers
of injuries.
Fatalities compared to reported injuries from Irish
data
Fig. 2-2 shows the number of traffic fatalities per million
population versus road user age for Northern Ireland and for
the Republic of Ireland for 1990-1992. Northern Ireland,
which is a province of the much larger United Kingdom, and
the Republic of Ireland, an independent nation, share the
same small island of Ireland, not always amicably. As
physical environment, climate, vehicles, and general human
behavior are similar in the two jurisdictions, it is not
surprising that fatalities show similar characteristics.
However, reported injuries do not, as indicated by 1991 data
for each jurisdiction:
Northern Ireland: 6.9 reported injuries per thousand
population.
Republic of Ireland: 2.7 reported injuries per thousand
population.
The authors of the report providing the data comment on the
dramatic difference in reported injury rates compared to the
lack of difference in fatality rates as follows:
The most likely solution to this conundrum is that reporting
practices are very different in the two jurisdictions, with
"minor" injuries likely to go unrecorded in the
Republic but to be "over-reported" in the North.17
The more generous British social welfare benefits available
in Northern Ireland provided monetary compensation for
genuine injuries. However, the same benefits were available
for reporting injuries even if none occurred. Such benefits
being less available in the Republic at the time covered by
the study may have led some real injuries to go unreported,
because those injured did not feel it worth the time and
trouble to report them.
Another finding was that even at the height of the political
violence in Northern Ireland in the early 1990s, traffic
fatalities still remained the major cause of sudden violent
death.17
Whiplash
The term "whiplash"
refers to injuries associated with occupants' heads moving
rearward relative to their bodies when vehicles in which
they are traveling are struck in the rear by other vehicles.
Late whiplash syndrome refers to symptoms that persist, or
arise, long after the crash. Unquestionably many injuries
occur in rear-impact crashes, many of which cause major pain
and disability. Such injuries can be difficult to diagnose
by objective medical tests, so patients' reports of neck
pain are often the only basis of diagnosis.
There are innumerable published
estimates of more than a million whiplash injuries in the US
each year, with some estimates being as high as 4 million.
The total monetary cost is estimated to be 29 billion
dollars per year. For Western Europe over a million whiplash
injuries are reported, and estimated to cost 8 billion euros
a year.
It is common knowledge in the US
and Western Europe that a reported whiplash injury can lead
to monetary compensation. It is likewise well known that a
rear-impact crash has a very high probability of being
followed by claims of whiplash injury. The expectation that
such injuries are a near inevitable consequence of a
rear-impact crash may generate genuine symptoms that, absent
such expectation, might not occur.
How widespread would reports of
whiplash injuries be if people did not expect to suffer them
after rear-impact crashes, or could not receive payment for
claiming symptoms? This question was addressed by two
studies using similar methodology conducted in Lithuania. In
Lithuania, few car drivers and passengers were covered by
insurance, and there was little awareness among the general
public about the potentially disabling consequences of a
whiplash injury.
In the first study, 202 occupants
of cars that had been struck in the rear were interviewed
1-3 years after their crashes. A control group of 202
individuals matched in age and gender who had not been
involved in any type of traffic crash completed the same
questionnaire. Members of the study and control groups were
asked to report symptoms associated with whiplash, with the
results summarized in Table 2-5. The authors report that no
one in the study group claimed disabling or persistent
symptoms as a result of the crash.
Table 2-5. Comparison of reported whiplash symptoms by occupants of cars struck in the rear 1-3 years earlier to people not involved in traffic crashes.
The second study used 210
subjects in cars struck in the rear, and 210 crash-free
subjects matched in age and gender. Unlike the earlier
investigation, study subjects were mailed questionnaires
soon after the crash to obtain information about short-term
effects. Follow up questionnaires were sent to the study
subjects two months after their crashes, and one year after
their crashes. A follow up questionnaire was sent to the
control subjects a year after they were first identified.
The results are summarized in Table 2-6. The authors
conclude:
In a country were there is no preconceived notion of
chronic pain arising from rear end collisions, and thus no
fear of long term disability, and usually no involvement of
the therapeutic community, insurance companies, or
litigation, symptoms after an acute whiplash injury are self
limiting, brief, and do not seem to evolve to the so-called
late whiplash syndrome.22
Table 2-6. Comparison of reported whiplash symptoms by occupants of cars struck in the rear and respondents not involved in traffic crashes.
NHTSA estimates that about 1.5
million vehicles are struck in the rear annually in the US.
The more than a million reported cases of whiplash injury
implies that a rear-end crash has about a 67% chance of
generating a reported whiplash injury, so that samples of
over 200 occupants struck in the rear would be expected to
produce about 130 cases of whiplash. The data in Tables 2-5
and 2-6 convincingly reject any possibility that whiplash
injuries are nearly that common. In fact, there are no more
than minor differences between the self-reported symptoms of
occupants of vehicles struck in the rear and people not
involved in any type of traffic crash. The conclusion is
inescapably clear. It is insurance compensation and
litigation that is responsible for most of the whiplash
injuries reported in the US and Western Europe, not crash
forces.
Injuries per fatality
In Canada from 1970 to 2001 the
number of traffic fatalities decreased by 45%, but the
number of injuries increased by 24%. A number of
explanations have been offered to explain this dramatic
contrast. These include the suggestion that occupant
protection has made enormous strides in preventing
fatalities, but not in preventing injuries. This is
unconvincing. There is no reason to suppose that measures
that reduce the forces on the human body in a crash will
particularly alter the distribution of injuries by severity.
All injury levels are expected to decline by comparable
proportions. Such evidence as there is suggests occupant
protection improvements will reduce injury risk more than
fatality risk. For example, safety belts are probably more
effective at preventing injuries than fatalities (p 283).
Another suggestion is that improved trauma care reduces
fatalities, but an injury remains an injury even if given
better medical treatment. This is qualitatively correct.
But, as more than half of fatalities in FARS 2002 died
within an hour of their crashes, the quantitative effect of
improved trauma care, while an important contributor, cannot
explain more than a small portion of the enormous divergence
between the fatality and injury trends.
There are general reasons why the
ratio of injuries to fatalities is expected to be fairly
robust, and to not depend much on country, safety policy
(for example, belt wearing laws) or vehicle design, and to
change only gradually in time. Even if vehicle factors did
somehow influence the ratio, the effect from year to year
could be no more than a percent or so, because 90% of the
vehicles on the road in a given year are the same vehicles
that were on the road in the previous year.
The data in Fig. 2-3 defy any plausible interpretation in
terms of engineering or medical factors. The number of
injuries per fatality should be similar in Canada and
Britain, and change only slowly, and similarly, in each
country. What Fig. 2-3 appears to be reflecting is not
changes in the risk of injury, but changes in the
probability that an injury is reported. The reporting
probability depends on politics, medical policy, insurance
policy, and law, all factors that can change quickly, and
differ from country to country, and from era to era.
In Britain in the Second World War
years 1942-1944 there were 20 reported injuries per
fatality, compared to 34 in the pre-war years 1935-1938.
After the war the number of reported injuries per fatality
increased, but stabilized at close to 50 during the
prolonged period from 1950 and 1970. This period was just
after the introduction of the National Health Service in
1948. Everyone requesting health care received it free of
cost, but opportunities for additional compensation for
injuries were generally unavailable. Beyond the 1970s,
opportunities for monetary compensation expanded. Fig. 2-3
shows a marked increasing trend in the number of reported
injuries per fatality after 1970.
In Canada in the 1960s, when medical care was largely paid
directly out of patients' pockets, the number of reported
injuries per fatality was substantially lower than in
Britain. However, it later increased rapidly as Canadian
provinces moved more in the direction of public payment for
medical care, and later opportunities expanded for
compensation in addition to medical care.
There are two effects that can make
the number of reported injuries increase even if the actual
number of injuries remains constant. First, in the past
injuries occurred but were not reported. Direct
out-of-pocket expenditures discourage reporting. Because of
increased emphasis on health care, someone suffering a
Figure 2-3. The number of reported injuries divided by the
number of reported fatalities in Canada and Great Britain.
Data from Refs. 25 and .
cut, scratch, or bump today is more likely to seek
medical care than in the past even if cost is not a
consideration.
The second way that reported
injuries might depart from actual injuries is through
injuries being reported when none is present. Providing
rewards for reporting injuries encourages such behavior.
Transport Canada defines injuries to "include all those
who suffered any visible injury or complained of pain"
(bold added).
A broader message
Data from a number of countries and sources show
consistently that reported injuries can depart from actual
injuries by large systematic amounts. This finding teaches
two principles important to traffic safety. First, clear
effects observed in data sets do not necessarily imply real
phenomena, but may instead be due to data selection and
definition. The second principle is more universal, and is
well understood by economists, but often ignored, or even
hotly denied, by others. The principle is that as the cost
of an activity increases, less of it occurs, while as the
reward for an activity increases, more of it occurs. The
empirical data show that this principle explains variations
in reported injuries per fatality. The same principle
applies to many traffic safety topics. If the cost of
crashing increases, fewer crashes occur. If the cost
decreases, say, because of insurance, more crashes occur.
Any policy that increases the cost of drunk driving, such as
increased alcohol taxes, reduces drunk driving.
Summary and conclusions (see printed text)
References for Chapter 2 - Numbers in [ ] refer to superscript references in book that do not correctly show in this html version. To see how they appear in book see see pdf version of Chapter 1 or pdf version of Chapter 16.
[1] Fatality Analysis Reporting
System (FARS) Web-Based Encyclopedia. Data files and
procedures to analyze them at http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov
[2] National Safety Council. Injury
Facts (prior to 1999 called Accident Facts). Itasca, IL:
published annually.
[3] Tessmer JM. FARS analytic
reference guide 1975 to 2002. Washington, DC: National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Department of
Transportation.
[4] Weiss HB, Songer TJ, Fabio A.
Fetal deaths related to maternal injury. J Am Medical Assoc.
2001; 286: 1863-1868.
[5] Association for the Advancement
of Automotive Medicine. The abbreviated injury scale. AAAM;
1990.
[6] National Center for Health
Statistics. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth
Revision, Clinical Modification, Sixth Edition.
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/ftpserv/ftpicd9/ftpicd9.htm#guidelines
[7] Malliaris AC, Hitchcock R,
Hedlund J. A search for priorities in crash protection. SAE
paper 820242. Warrendale, PA: Society of Automotive
Engineers; 1982.
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