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Copyright © 2004 by Leonard Evans | ||
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| The text below is © Leonard Evans. Portions totaling not more than 400 words my be freely used with appropriate citation. |
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Contents
Preface / xiii
1 Introduction / 1
Traffic safety – a grossly underemphasized problem / 1
The sinking of the Titanic / 2
Terminology / 6
Simple questions without simple answers / 9
Poisson distribution / 12
Three levels of knowledge / 15
Summary and conclusions / 16
References for Chapter 1 / 17
2 Data sources / 19
Introduction / 19
Fatalities / 19
Non-fatal injuries / 22
Crash severity – damage to vehicles / 25
How reliable are injury reports? / 28
Summary and conclusions / 34
References for Chapter 2 / 34
3 Overview of traffic fatalities / 36
The beginnings / 36
Long term trends / 37
Who is killed? / 44
Number of vehicles / 48
Fraction of deaths due to rollover and ejection / 49
Fatalities according to seating position / 51
Variation throughout year and day / 57
Someone does NOT get killed every 13 minutes / 58
Caution in interpreting averages / 60
Summary and conclusions / 61
References for Chapter 3 / 62
4 Vehicle mass and size / 63
Introduction / 63
Vehicle factors / 63
Two-vehicle crashes / 67
Effect of mass in two-car crashes / 68
Other vehicles / 75
Separating causal roles of mass and size / 77
Single-vehicle crashes / 85
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) / 88
Total safety, vehicle type, vehicle mass / 91
Summary and conclusions / 95
References for Chapter 4 / 96
5 Environment, roadway, and vehicle / 98
Introduction / 98
Weather / 98
Roadway / 102
Vehicle factors / 107
Summary and conclusions / 116
References for Chapter 5 / 117
6 Gender, age, and alcohol effects on survival / 120
Introduction / 120
Gender and survivability / 120
Age and survivability / 132
Gender and age effects determined using two-car crashes / 137
Alcohol consumption and survivability / 141
Summary and conclusions / 144
References for Chapter 6 / 145
7 Older drivers / 147
Introduction / 147
Changing risks drivers face as they age / 148
Threat to other road users / 156
Pedestrian involvements in fatal and severe crashes / 157
Cross sectional compared to longitudinal analyses / 160
Traffic deaths relative to all deaths / 161
Types of crashes / 163
Risk comparisons using specific examples / 166
The older driver problem – how is it changing? / 170
The younger driver problem / 171
Summary and conclusions / 171
References for Chapter 7 / 172
8 Driver performance / 174
Introduction / 174
Components of the driving task / 174
Reaction times / 181
An example illustrating reaction time and braking / 182
Rear impact crashes / 184
Driving simulators / 187
Acquisition of driving skill / 190
Driver education and training / 197
Graduated driver licenses / 199
Summary and conclusions / 201
References for Chapter 8 / 202
9 Driver behavior / 206
Introduction / 206
Racing drivers compared to average drivers / 207
Effect of speed on risk / 209
Demographic factors related to risk taking in traffic / 217
Personality factors and crash rates / 220
Non-transport motives / 223
Family influence / 225
Crime rates and crash rates / 226
Gender differences in risk taking by babies and children / 227
Crashes, crimes, and testosterone / 230
Summary and conclusions / 233
References for Chapter 9 / 234
10 Alcohol / 237
Introduction / 237
Measurement of alcohol / 238
Absorption and elimination of alcohol / 241
How alcohol affects humans / 243
Crash risk and alcohol / 246
Drunk driving countermeasures involving criminal sanctions / 252
Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) / 257
Availability of alcohol / 258
Cost of alcohol / 260
Alcohol sales / 261
Alcohol advertising / 261
Tax and advertising policies that would save lives / 263
Reasonable approaches to harmful substances / 264
Summary and conclusions / 265
References for Chapter 10 / 266
11 Occupant protection / 270
Why people get hurt in crashes – basic biomechanics / 270
Goal of occupant protection / 271
Occupant protection devices / 272
Effectiveness definitions / 273
Concepts central to all occupant protection devices / 274
Difficulties in estimating safety belt effectiveness / 277
When-used effectiveness of safety belts / 279
Effectiveness of other occupant protection devices / 283
Estimating field effectiveness / 287
Selective recruitment / 289
Belt wearing laws / 295
Repeal of mandatory motorcycle helmet wearing laws / 298
Occupant-protection issues / 300
Summary and conclusions / 305
References for Chapter 11 / 305
12 Airbag benefits, airbag costs / 309
Introduction / 309
Overview of frontal airbags / 310
Airbag benefits, airbag costs / 314
Other airbag costs / 322
Fundamental flaw in estimating benefits of airbags / 326
What happens to airbag benefits if belt use increases? / 327
Other issues / 328
Summary and conclusions / 329
References for Chapter 12 / 329
13 Measures to improve traffic safety / 332
Introduction / 332
Factors influencing traffic safety / 333
The dominant role of driver behavior / 338
Interactive effects / 347
Contrast with airline safety / 353
Relative importance of factors / 355
Summary and conclusions / 356
References for Chapter 13 / 356
14 How you can reduce your risk / 359
Introduction / 359
Average behavior produces average crash risk / 360
Most drivers think they are better than other drivers / 361
Crashes and driver responsibility / 364
Rear-impact crashes / 366
Other traffic situations / 373
Vehicle choice / 375
Incentives to decrease or increase crash likelihood / 376
Summary and conclusions / 379
References for Chapter 14 / 380
15 The dramatic failure of US safety policy / 381
Introduction / 381
The US compared to other countries / 381
Search for an explanation / 389
Irrelevance of numbers and technical knowledge / 390
The airbag mandate / 392
Issues surrounding airbags and the mandate / 396
Where is US safety policy now? / 401
The importance of what the public believes / 402
Specific differences / 404
Epilogue / 407
Summary and conclusions / 408
References for Chapter 15 / 409
16 Vision for a safer tomorrow / 412
Introduction / 412
The two most important factors / 413
The extraordinary safety of commercial aviation / 414
Enforcement / 416
Enforcement using newer technology / 417
Driving is a public, not a private, activity / 419
Policy and automatic monitoring / 420
Other changes / 422
Summary and conclusions / 424
References for Chapter 16 / 425
Index / 427
About the author / 445
